Supported by HORIBAGAIAPRESSNature / Environment / Life
Communication with the Unknown

• トップページ
• Fantastic Voyagers
• Saved by the cat

In earthquake-prone Japan, earthquake prediction is a big topic, but a reliable method has yet to be found. We visited a researcher who believes that the unusual behavior displayed by animals before earthquakes may serve as a hint towards a more efficient approach for prediction.

Professor Mitsuaki Ohta, Azabu University.

Pets showing “unusual behavior” just before an earthquake

Japan is regularly hit by large-scale earthquakes like the Kobe earthquake in 1995, the Chuetsu earthquake in 2004, and the Tohoku earthquake in 2011. Once the aftershocks have subsided and the reconstruction is underway, a certain kind of articles invariably pop up in the back pages of the media:

“Come to think of it, our dog suddenly started barking just before the tremor.”
“The wild cats that always hang around in the park were conspicuously absent that day.”

After the huge earthquake outside Sumatra in December 2004 and the resulting tsunami, which caused death and devastation in a number of countries, the news reported that “human bodies kept floating ashore, but there were no dead animals whatsoever.” Theories that animals can predict earthquakes, and stories of their unusual behavior as proof of those theories, always appear after any large earthquake. That’s the catch: it’s always after the quake.

Unusual behavior as an approach to prediction

“Whenever I hear somebody say, “Now that you mention it, just at that time…” I feel humiliated as a scientist,” says Professor Mitsuaki Ohta of Azabu University Graduate School of Veterinary Science, who is researching “unusual animal behavior as premonitions of earthquakes.” At the time of the Kobe earthquake, he was working at Osaka Prefecture University and made several trips to the disaster-stricken areas as a volunteer.
“The shelters were full not only with refugees, but with their pet cats and dogs as well. Eventually I had the chance to hear of the unusual things they had observed their pets doing just before the quake.”
According to one survey carried out by the Japan Pet Care Association, over 30% of cats and between 20 and 30% of dogs had displayed some kind of unusual behavior. Another study carried out by Professor Ohta among veterinarians revealed approximately the same result. But what is it the animals are sensing that causes them to behave in strange ways?

“One theory is that they are detecting electromagnetic waves caused by additional pressure and distortions in the ground just before an earthquake. Another theory is that they react to electrified aerosols. There have been many hypotheses, but we have never been able to reproduce the unusual behavior using experimental animals.”
After plenty of disappointments, Professor Ohta had an idea. “Perhaps the natural instincts of experimental animals have been lost. Perhaps we need ordinary animals living in an environment just like a regular home.” He started keeping dogs and cats as pets in his lab, and when he did experiments with them, it turned out that one animal in ten showed a reaction to artificially generated electromagnetic waves.
“When an earthquake is approaching, he does things he would never do otherwise. He starts barking and moving around restlessly. To me who watches him every day, it is obvious that something unusual is going on.”
In fact, right after this dog had displayed its atypical behavior, a medium-sized earthquake occurred near the Kanto area.
“Catfish are often mentioned as animals that may be able to predict earthquakes, but they can behave violently even before a minor tremor with a magnitude of 1 on the Richter scale, or there are cases where they act up long before the actual quake. Even if they do show signs of premonition, if you have no idea when the earthquake is actually going to occur, they are useless as a warning system.”
In that regard, many examples of the behavior of cats and dogs should be observable, particularly before big tremors.
“For example, if you knew that a Magnitude 6 earthquake was going to occur within eight hours, there are plenty of countermeasures you could take. There would still be a lot of material damages, perhaps, but the number of casualties and injuries could be dramatically reduced, I believe.”

The search for a “seismically sensitive gene”

For a long time, Professor Ohta’s work was ignored by other earthquake prediction researchers in Japan, but as he was invited to lecture in Argentina and Canada, gradually his reputation grew at home as well.
“If you don’t have clear evidence, it is not regarded as science,” Professor Ohta realized, and set as his goal to discover a “seismically sensitive gene.” He collected blood samples from around 300 pets that had displayed unusual behavior just before the Kobe earthquake and started decoding their genes, in the hope of finding a gene sequence with a possible connection to earthquake prediction.
“Honestly, it’s an enormous undertaking and will take a long time. But if we really do find something, it would be hard evidence for one thing, and it might also lead to the breeding of special ‘earthquake dogs,’ similar to guide dogs for the blind.”

Reflecting on communication with animals

Over the millennia, mankind has learnt to use tools and developed science, but at the same time it is believed we have lost many of our natural senses as animals. It is often said that if you don’t use an ability, you lose it, and that may also help explain the behavior of some animals that don’t react in any particular way before an earthquake.
“During the Kobe earthquake, there were examples of pets that didn’t behave in any unusual way before the main tremor, but clearly did act up before the subsequent aftershocks. Perhaps the initial tremor sharpened their dormant senses.”
A typical form of unusual behavior is violent barking or howling. This is thought to be a kind of warning signal: “A major earthquake is coming! Run away!” But if we humans can’t understand their message properly, the animals’ warnings fall on deaf ears. Even many pet owners fail to realize when their pet is behaving “unusually.” What animals actually perceive just before an earthquake is still almost completely unknown, but it is a topic that should give us plenty to think about communication with animals, and our relationship to the world in general.